The Strange Death of labour wales

In 1935 George Dangerfield wrote the celebrated text The Strange Death of Liberal England. It appeared almost thirty years after the Liberal landslide victory of 1906. Here I catch myself considering the future almost thirty years after Blair’s victory of 1997. Dangerfield argued that the Liberal party was destroyed by its failure to deal with the challenges of trade unionism, women’s suffrage and Ireland. As the lights went out in August 1914 the slaughterhouse awaited the participants in the bitter battle between Lloyd George and Asquith. Marx famously commented that history repeats itself first a tragedy and then as farce and spoke of how things once solid melted into air. With the emergence of Labour as a separate party the Liberals found themselves reduced from close on 400 seats to only 40 by 1924. It’s been 103 years since Labour emerged as the dominant party in Wales, including 28 years of Labour dominance of devolved politics. Yet I fear the future and see the omens crowding in to haunt Welsh Labour. The spectre of Reform is haunting the valleys of South Wales. Reform will prove to be ephemeral but dangerous in the short-term while opening the post-industrial areas of Wales to a darker brand of the far right not seen since the 1930s.

The inability of Starmer to tackle inequality, Palestine and the ethno-nationalism of Trump echo the elements of the dissolving of the old Liberal party some hundred years ago.

Wales itself has its own unique factors working in a tragic and ironic way, threatening its future and solidity. The disastrous Truss-like administration of Vaughan Gething, leading to the shattering of a broad-based understanding between Labour and Plaid has threatened the progressive dominance in Wales which had support from the Green party and others on the eco-socialist left. Now, the chickens are coming home to roost and are morphing into the black swan of a Hegelian crisis. The recent Reform victory in the council by-election in Torfaen reveals the threat clearly and brutally to Welsh Labour. Labour’s vote fell by two thirds and Reform won with 47% of the votes cast. Reform is recruiting heavily for candidates for the Senedd elections of 2026 and the council elections the following year when the pattern threatens to be repeated across South Wales.

Less than thirty years after devolution too many people have failed to appreciate the possibilities in devolution for building a community-based and mass-party route to socialism. Welsh Labour is the creator of devolution but has failed to devolve power to the Welsh party and technically a Starmerite party leader could suspend the First Minister without recourse to Welsh Labour. Starmer’s promise to the Welsh Labour conference must be put into the context of his other promises.

The accession of Eluned Morgan herself is a significant development. She is the first First Minister to come from a background from where she could have easily joined either Labour or Plaid. Many comrades have serious concerns about her ambitions and beliefs. Yet she broke ranks and called for a ceasefire in Gaza and in many cases has taken time to campaign for local activists in election campaigns when the worthies of the local Labour party did not. However, I fear that she will be the last Labour First Minister of Wales for a generation or so.

In May 2026 I suspect that Plaid Cymru will emerge as just about the largest party, with Labour third, just behind Reform. Reform’s membership will soon exceed Labour’s and we can clearly see a shifting of power to Plaid with Labour as a junior partner, an ironic inversion of the One Wales government of 2007. Plaid has its challenges too, between the eco-socialists and the socially conservative farmers. With nearly a third of Labour’s MSs standing down at the next election, Plaid stands on the edge of power and it is likely that as Scotland will see the return of the SNP to government in Holyrood, so Plaid will, for the first time, lead a government in Cardiff.

What can we say about the left in Wales? It is clear that the embers are glowing and growing. A number of groups, such as Celyn– Welsh for ‘holly’ and therefore red, green and spiky –are seeking to build a socialist and green current among the Labour left, the eco-socialist wing of Plaid and the Wales Green party. It is possible that the leader of that party, who achieved a respectable 15% of the vote in the 2024 general election, will be elected to the Senedd in 2026. Welsh socialism may well burst into flames again but as the left deserts Labour and Labour deserts those who have historically voted for it, Welsh socialism’s heirs may be outside the ranks of the Labour party.

Devolution is in danger. There are contradictions and paradox in a situation in which an England without regional assemblies could ever create a ‘progressive federalism’ with Wales and Scotland. The red flag was first raised in Merthyr in 1931. Another Keir in another time understood the values of social justice, home rule and socialism far more than the later one. Starmer never mentions the Senedd, (although he speaks about regional assemblies ad nauseum.) He really does not understand Welsh nationalism and like many on the ‘Brit left’ confuses it with English nationalism. The former stems from a need to survive rather than a desire for imperial dominance.

Finally I refer to a 2012 book, written after the fall of Blair and New Labour, concerning the fate of Scottish Labour. The Strange Death of Scottish Labour by Gerry Hassan and Eric Shaw acts as a warning to Welsh Labour in the here and now and in the years ahead. What must be done for there to be socialism in Wales? The question cannot be avoided and it’s getting late.

Contradictions grow and the paradoxes multiply. What is the shape of things to come? Eluned Morgan, as a member of the House of Lords, ennobled by Blair, leads Welsh Labour in a Starmer mid-term into an election not dissimilar to the pressure and decapitation attacks experienced by the Tories in 2024. The road is uncertain, dark and full of danger.