Into The Abyss

The most recent opinion poll relating to the Senedd election due in 2026 shows Welsh Labour staggering into the political abyss. Plaid Cymru has reached the psychologically significant level of 30%. Reform is second on 25% whilst Welsh Labour has dropped to 18%. The Tories are down to 13% with the Greens  and the Liberal Democrats at 7% each.

On May 1^st, in a formerly safe Labour seat in Pyle, Bridgend County, Reform UK won a by-election with Labour’s vote collapsing by 33.7% to 30.4%. There is a pattern here, continuing from recent losses both to Reform and to the Liberal Democrats in the Swansea Valley. 

It’s quite clear, reading the subtext of the implied criticism of Starmer’s Labour government by the Welsh First Minister Eluned Morgan, that Welsh Labour is in serious trouble. It’s growing clearer daily that Starmer, Reeves et al have no serious understanding of the effects on voters of the winter fuel changes, reforms of benefits and the lack of any action taken, unlike in Scunthorpe, to safeguard steel-making at Port Talbot.

The perception, therefore, is that Wales is being ignored and that devolution is neither understood nor respected. Plaid’s vote reaching 30% is highly significant. Of the activists who have left Labour or been driven out, many are joining Plaid, the Greens, or are actively seeking a clear left alternative within Cymru.

Labour created devolution for Wales but has not granted it to the party. But Wales feels different. Mark Drakeford’s administration demonstrated clearly that Wales dealt with Covid differently from England; the unintended consequences were that a different path was seen as possible. The drive to a republican, socialist Wales is growing within Wales and stretches over three political parties here.

To those of us who support independence, it’s quite clear that the argument for ‘progressive federalism’ is no longer viable. You cannot have federalism between Wales, Scotland and England because of the dominance of England in size, economic power and cultural hegemony. Progressive federalism would only be possible if England itself had devolved regional parliaments. And so, there is a growing impetus for independence and socialism amongst the left and the Greens of Cymru.

Of course, the reactionary right in the shape of Reform UK and the Tories reveal another tendency in the politics and culture of Wales. May 2026 is likely to see Labour in third place and the Tories supplanted by Reform. The culture wars are being fought vigorously here. The Reform UK ‘flag debate’ has made no mention of which flags it would allow to be flown in Wales. The use of the Union flag has been used widely within Wales upon Reform’s leaflets, yet, ironically in last July’s general election, the only Labour posters available had the Union flag on them.

Also, ironically, Reform looks as it may seek the abolition of the Senedd. It has refused to identify or appoint anyone to a Welsh leadership role but is playing heavily on the myth of Farage seeking to ‘reform’ Wales.

The road ahead is unclear but that opinion poll suggests that the contest for Wales is now between Plaid and Reform; Labour appears condemned to be the junior partner in a future Plaid-Labour administration. It may be that the Green Party will now elect their first representative; we may also see the emergence too of independent socialist challenges. At a moment of crisis both for Labour and the British state, Reform UK represents the desperate, but still potent last stage of Unionism or English Nationalism. Welsh self-determination is an opportunity for a green, republican socialism to emerge in Wales. A historical shift is about to occur in Wales that has not happened since 1922 when Labour replaced the old Liberal Party as the dominant political force. Après Drakeford, la deluge?

Martyn Shrewsbury, Ystradgynlais Community Councillor

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