New Thinking Needed to Stop Farage

In the Senedd elections due in 2026 Reform UK poses a huge threat. It may win an outright majority. It may form a majority with a few Tories. It may simply be large enough to wreak havoc.

The danger from any of this is such that it is really not good enough to say: ‘Oh, it probably won’t happen.’

So, minimising Reform UK’s vote and seats is a higher priority than trying to delude oneself that either Labour or Plaid might win an overall majority.

Wales Labour is in a dreadful state. It will continue to decline for as long as it is seen as mainly an apologist for, or an agent of the awful Starmer government at Westminster. Recent pronouncements from the First Minister Eluned Morgan are welcome, but many will say ‘too little, too late’.                                                                        

But despite all of the above, what we increasingly need is some kind of Popular Front alliance to defeat Farage.

That is a really difficult call. It was Vaughan Gething who effectively ended the cooperation with Plaid and then proceeded to abandon most of the radical policies that had been agreed between the two parties, starting with the long overdue reform of Council tax.

Meanwhile we had a double whammy from the Starmer government in Westminster. First, a string of unnecessary and deeply unpopular measures such as the refusal to raise the 2-child benefit cap and the withdrawal of the pensioners’ winter fuel allowance, soon to be followed, we are informed, by a string of further welfare cuts.

At the same time a series of policies promised by Labour before the general election were bluntly abandoned. These included the HS2 Barnett consequential, devolution of the Crown Estates and a commitment to save Port Talbot as a producer of primary steel. For many voters in South Wales the incompetent failure to make any significant improvements to the Tory deal with Tata only to be followed by an effective nationalisation at Scunthorpe and the sudden discovery that the retention of primary steel-making was essential, demonstrated only too clearly the Starmer government’s attitude to Wales.

And yet, despite all this, in whichever of the 16 Senedd constituencies there is a better chance for Labour to deny seats to Reform UK people should vote Labour. And whether others like it or not, wherever Plaid has the best chance, they should be supported. And that may be a majority of constituencies.

It would help enormously if in the next few days and weeks, and that is all we really have, we work to maximise the number of candidates selected for either party who will want to fight for and then implement radical green and socialist policies that will hold Farage at bay and then form the basis of a new co-operation agreement that would start urgently to produce a transition in Wales that would give people some real hope for the near future. Electors no longer believe in any vague aspirational policies. What is needed is an emphasis on things happening very soon: recruitment of more NHS front-line staff, a large increase in minimum pay for public and private sector care workers, mass recruitment and training for construction workers to build new Passivhaus or equivalent low energy homes for affordable social rent and first-time owners and a radical escalation in the programme for far more buses (electric of course!) And there are ways in which all that can be paid for by a radical and ambitious new Welsh government.       

Tragically, what we are likely to see, particularly once candidates have been chosen, is Plaid and Labour in a growing slanging match, mainly focussed on maximising their perceived chances of getting to be the dominant party in some sort of coalition      

What would be far better would be to see brave, intelligent fighting left and green comrades topping the lists in both the parties, publicly committing themselves to the kind of policies outlined above.

All these are personal opinions. They are written from the perspective of a deeply frustrated former Labour activist. Things may change very quickly in some fairly unpredictable directions.

I hope to follow this up soon with a reminder of the ridiculous electoral system imposed on us, the prospects and dangers of small party and independent lists, and a comparison between Plaid’s method of selecting candidates and that of the entirely Starmer-controlled Wales Labour.