REFORM  IN  THE  UK  AND  WALES

In one sense Reform UK is less of an issue in Wales than in England, as it will be standing for, I imagine, most of the seats that are on offer in local elections  there in a few weeks time, but not in Wales as there are no elections here this year, as is also the case in Scotland.

But in another sense the impact of Reform is likely to be far greater in Wales in the 2026 Senedd elections  than in England in the various local elections there this year and in coming years, although the control of a few local councils, some quite large, may well change. In Wales the UKs second most important Labour controlled body (or third perhaps, after London), is subject to an election based on PR, which some believe could advance Reform significantly, or even replace Labour as the ruling party.

I find these claims exaggerated, although we will be in a better position to make a judgement after the May elections.

Both the Tories and Reform know that they must avoid going into the next general election with the forces of the right split between their two parties, as it was this that was the main reason for the huge Labour landslide last year. There are three possible solutions: to destroy the voting appeal of the other party, to merge the two parties, or to make a deal based on not standing against each other.

Now, (early March), Reform is riding high on about 26%, marginally ahead of Labour, and of the Tories on about 22%. It isn’t clear, to my knowledge, whether any sort of agreement is likely before the May elections. But all the possible options are problematic. To reduce the Tory vote to less than 10% would be very difficult. A merger would be opposed by many members of both parties, many of whom would go elsewhere. A deal not to stand would cause resentment among members of the party not standing and would be unpopular electorally.

The result for Reform in Wales in 2024, at 17%,  was about the same as in three regions outside London, Scotland and the south, and not as high as in both Midlands regions and the Northeast.

Despite Reform somehow thinking that it will do well in Wales, it is in many ways very ’English’, while the alternative to the Tories or Labour includes a nationalist party, Plaid, unlike anywhere in England. (Except marginally in Cornwall).

The fortunes of Reform in Wales in 2026 will reflect their overall performance in the whole of the UK, but there are no reasons to think that that should be greater than elsewhere, and some for thinking that it might be less.