Martyn Shrewsbury

The by-election in Caerphilly must be seen in a particular context and in a unique way, from the point of view of the past, present and the future.

This Plaid Cymru victory marks an end to Labour’s domination of South Wales and its historical century of power. In the present it leaves Welsh Labour without a majority as it seeks to get its budget through the Senedd. Labour is vulnerable as it enters the last six months before the full Senedd elections in May 2026. The turnout of 50.2% marks the highest level in any Senedd election since the start of Welsh devolution. Labour’s campaign was cack-handed and failed to appreciate the cultural and political changes and their relevance to the struggle against the populism of the right.

Labour’s worst moment was a leaflet presenting Plaid and Reform as the same. This was clumsy, ignorant and factually incorrect. It has an echo of Eluned Morgan’s ‘two poisons in the same bottle’ speech in its origins and form. It’s out of date by some sixty years and can be seen as straight out of the play-book of George Thomas, the reactionary former Commons Speaker and doyen of the Labour right. Sixty years ago, it was often said that you must choose a binary option of either ‘Welsh nationalism or Welsh Labourism’. Over those sixty years it’s clear that this nonsensical categorisation has been shown to be erroneous, Mark Drakeford and in particular Eluned Morgan could easily have chosen either. The election of Vaughan Gething early in 2024 was fundamentally a regression to old style Welsh Labourism and, since his ‘Truss-like’ fall, a civil war with the supporters of Jeremy Miles has not ceased. The real fall of Welsh Labour began with the retirement of Mark Drakeford; the hubris and arrogance of the Labour right speeded up the decline. Of course, twenty six years of power and the premature mid-term of the Starmer government were extra ingredients to a deadly cocktail of decline and fall.

Plaid’s Caerphilly victory has created an opportunity for the party to argue that politics in Wales is now a two horse race between itself and Reform. Up to 40% of the Labour vote has moved to Plaid and Reform is mopping up a tiny proportion. Of course, Reform lacks the data that Welsh Labour has accumulated over the last thirty years and lacks the sophistication or means to access those who do not normally vote or feel excluded from the Welsh political culture. Reform’s candidate in Caerphilly was clumsy, unsophisticated and crass. He rolled his eyes, looked uncomfortable and could not connect to people on the campaign.  At the result he refused to speak and stormed out in a Farageist, frenzied fit of pique. Llŷr Powell had been Farage’s nominee to be the leader of a future Reform Senedd group, selected as unlikely ever to overshadow his dominance or control.  As it was, the crude sectarianism and personal rivalry within Reform had, prior to election day, resulted in relentless ‘off the record’ personal attacks upon Llŷr Powell, sent to journalist after journalist. It’s a pathological psychological trait seen across and within the Reform councillors elected in May of this year.  It explains why Reform has not yet announced candidates or leadership for the May 2026 Senedd elections.

Whilst Plaid is clearly favourite to form the next Welsh government it should be pointed out that its ceiling is potentially less than that of Reform. Reform could easily both exceed predictions or be over-estimated in its strength. The new D’Hondt system of electing ninety six members across sixteen twinned constituencies of six seats each makes it impossible to argue for tactical voting in any meaningful way. There are no previous results to work upon because of geography and also change of electoral system. It’s impossible to predict if votes will be wasted by building up too large a majority or if a smaller party like the Greens could be more effective in denying the fifth or six seats to Reform.

As it is the Left block within Wales, some 63% of the entire electorate, is more split between Plaid, Labour and the Greens than the 37% of the right. Reform does not have the history of the Tories, Thatcher and the miners’ strike to prevent it appealing to the socially conservative with the pretend interventionist policies it offers. Reform has totally destroyed the Tories in Wales and absorbed the legacy of post-industrial neoliberalism. What matters now is, can it get out the vote or indeed identify who its supporters are?

The English media and the traditional ‘Brit Left’ have failed to understand Plaid’s appeal, which is self-deterministic and left wing rather than nationalistic in an English sense. Plaid will, in its discovery by the legacy media, risk greater examination and criticism than Reform has ever experienced. The English media probably cannot even pronounce its name or appreciate its difference.  Neither Tice nor Lee Anderson ever said the candidates name (Llŷr Tomos Powell).  ‘Llŷr’, with its apparent lack of a vowel, is a metaphor for how Wales goes unseen or unheard across the duo-structure of the British state or media.

The threat of Reform has been beaten back, but it has not gone. They could still be the largest party in the Senedd and bring crisis to Wales. All we know for certain is that Welsh Labour is in terminal decline and that what comes next is uncertain. Plaid offers hope, but it too has reactionary links to the chemical fathers of the Welsh hinterland as well as a first class eco-socialist wing. The Welsh Green Party or Plaid Werdd may hold the balance of power with as many as three seats, but the future is unclear as we head to the end of the year.  Reform’s  trolls and bots swarming around on social media are resting and not exorcised. The ghosts of the far right are sustained by Starmer’s policies and the poor judgements of Welsh Labour. The Party that created devolution has not devolved itself and is dying in the darkness of Samhain.  It failed to see the cultural and political context of post-modern Wales and its clash between the heirs of Gething and George Thomas with those of Drakeford leaves a party with half its present Senedd membership standing down in an historical pattern reminiscent of the Liberals in 1922.  If history repeats itself as tragedy then what farcical future awaits Wales? Perhaps all things solid will not melt into air and Plaid, Your Party Cymru and the Welsh Greens will restore the left in Wales. We must certainly plan its salvation with diligence.

The darkness is beaten back, but it has not gone and too few understand the fact that Caerphilly was a victory, but do not rest, the war is endless against the eternal Ur-fascism of Reform and its allies.