WELSH LABOUR’S LAST STAND?

There are two almost prophetic glimpses into the fate of Welsh Labour on Thursday May 7th in the Senedd elections. The first is a headline in the Western Mail showing the worried face of First Minister Eluned Morgan under the headline ” Last Stand'” The second somewhat curiously has a historical coincidence fused with a political synchronicity that reveals much both culturally socially and psychologically of the drape of things to come.

In the weeks following the Senedd elections the actor Michael Sheen will be playing the role of Owain Glyn Dwr in the play “Owain and Henry’. For those of you unaware of his significance it’s essential that you release that he represents a 15th century attempt to create an alternative state with universities, a legal code and all the institutions of a separate Welsh state that would replace the Edwardian settlement of the conquest of Wales in 1282. One of the most condescending attitudes I and many others have is when Unionist historians describe his attempts as merely a ‘ revolt”. In its true context Glyn Dwr’s campaigns should be seen as real attempts to create a Welsh state during the period of the Hundred Years war and not merely as a ‘revolt.”

As I write this about a week after the Manchester Gorton and Denton by election, we can clearly see real parallels between the results and the Caerphilly by election last October. Plaid Cymru is fulfilling the role that the Greens did in Manchester recently 

Indeed, in both by elections Labour used similar tactics that have completely rebounded upon them .in Wales it was that both Plaid and Reform were two poisons in the same bottle rather like the misrepresentation of the Green’s drugs policies and their attitude to the regulation of sex workers. Indeed, Starmer’s own crass comments about the Left and the Right on terms of the Greens and Reform reveal both the confusion and incomprehension that London Labour has in both cases to its challengers.

This is not a fate that Eluned Morgan deserves she is good on Palestine and is perhaps the first Labour First Minister who easily could give different circumstances be either a member of Plaid Cymru or of Welsh Labour.

Mark Drakeford showed how devolution could make a difference and yet all of his gains were effectively thrown away by the disastrous brief administration of Vaughan Gething and the complete inability of Starmer to realise that Wales is not a gigantic county council but a separate nation with its own traditions and history. Labour gave Wales devolution, but it has not devolved the Welsh Labour Party. It has imposed during the election of 2024 at least two candidates who have no appreciation of this fact 

In a recent interview referred to earlier with Michael Sheen this fact was clearly inferred. Sheen pointed out that in a relationship where one partner insisted that the other couldn’t support themselves, couldn’t make choices and had to account for spending decisions with the other before they were allowed to would be described as an abusive and controlling relationship. For this reason, Sheen was endorsing Plaid and like a good 65% of the Welsh population clearly understood that it was between Plaid and Reform. Whilst this is not an independence election it still implies both a maximum use and both pride and hope in Wales making it an opportunity for a devolution maximum one. Plaid has an excellent socialist tradition within it and will perhaps win as many as 42 seats in the new Senedd.

The most recent opinion poll as I write shows the Green Party leap frogging over Labour into second place nationally and with Reform falling further to a bare 23%. It would be possible to see as many as a dozen Greens elected to the Senedd enabling a majority of members supporting ultimate Welsh independence. Plaid insist that they will govern as a minority administration, but the direction of movement is quite clear.

Three local by elections in the last six weeks have been particularly significant. In Fishguard North a socialist and anti-racist campaigner Billy Shaw took the seat easily from Labour. In the Van by election in Caerphilly   Plaid captured a Labour seat against a strong threat by Reform and a couple of weeks ago in St Athan Plaid beat Reform in a straight contest. Another by election in Milford later this month will complete the picture as the Senedd campaign just begins.

Another election held on February 18th saw Plaids candidate Alison Vyas beat Reform with a clear majority.  Alison was significant in confronting the Reform candidate in the Senedd by election the loathsome Llwyr Powell about how his playing of the race and migration card made her worry about the safety of her dual heritage children. Plaid shows every chance of being the clear alternative upon the left in Wales and sadly Labour faces a 1922 moment as a hundred years of Labour comes to an end with then relegated at best to third or perhaps even fourth. Labour in Wales was founded by a Keir and dies led by a Keir…the irony cannot be escaped. (Map below shows projected election results in a Westminster election according to poll of March 2 by You Gov)

As I write at the end of the first week in March, we still know nothing of the names of any Reform candidates standing for the Senedd. At their manifesto launch Farage mentioned Iran and the need to support Trump’s illegal war far more times than he mentioned Wales. Their Leader in Wales one Dan Thomas the arch privatiser and former leader of Barnet Council has said that ‘ he does not want Wales to become like London ‘ The sub text is clear and the dog whistle to racism and xenophobia explicit.

Despite Farage belief that those who come to another should learn its language he clearly with his promise to abolish the Senedd’s target of one million Welsh speakers is an odd exception to his perception of integration 

As it is Dan Thomas their leader in Wales seems to be in the tradition of the imperial governors ruling from outside Wales. Though he claims to have returned to the Welsh Valleys his one million pound plus property near Bath seems to suggest a rupture of his desire to hold a welcome in the Valleys.  He cried in that unique way so worthy of Reform ‘ that the left was weaponizing his property portfolio against him”. It is so deliciously reminiscent of Reform tears. Of the genre of Matt Goodwin and the loathsome Llyr Powell their defeated candidate in Caerphilly. 

It feels as if Reform have been blunted in Wales, but it is still likely they will be the opposition party and with this comes the appointment of a deputy Presiding Officer in the Senedd which will be most illuminating.

Finally at their launch they banned the most talented and respected Welsh Journalist Will Hayward from attending after relentlessly bullying and intimidating him via trolls and bots on social media over the last six months… clearly free speech is selective when you’re in Reform. It is indeed most illuminating that AI and Chat GPT provide the mass ranks of Reform with its glossy manifesto and its brutal intimidation of many who oppose their party. With a little over six weeks to go Plaids dominance of the future seems beyond doubt as foes the rise of Plaid Werdd [the Wales Green Party] within the urban centres if Wales. Apres Drakeford les deluge.