Tactical Voting

Kicking Off

We need a Plaid Cymru led Government with a strong ‘Green’ edge.

Now approaching 80 years of age and having been a Labour MP, a Labour Councillor and having held a range of party positions, it is highly unlikely that I shall vote for the Labour list in the forthcoming Senedd elections.

My vote is in the Sir Gaerfyrddin Constituency, which is a combination of the Westminster seats of Llanelli and Caerfyrddin.

A study of the recent You Gov MRP Poll which is based on a sizeable sample from each individual constituency comes out as follows: –

1. PLAID CYMRU               43%
2. REFORM                          28%
3. GREEN PARTY               10%
4. LABOUR                          8%
5. CONSERVATIVES           5%
6. OTHERS                           4%

This would produce a seat allocation as follows: –

                        1^st Seat            PLAID CYMRU

                        2^nd Seat           REFORM

                        3^rd Seat            PLAID CYMRU

                        4^th Seat            REFORM

                        5^th seat             PLAID CYMRU

                        6^th seat             PLAID CYMRU        

However, for the sixth seat The Green Party are less than 1% behind Plaid Cymru. So, the outcome will either be 4 seats for Plaid Cymru and 2 seats for Reform or

3 seats for Plaid Cymru, 2 seats for Reform and one for the Green Party.

My current intention is to vote for the Green Party. The lead candidate on their list is Rob James (the former Leader of the Labour Group on Carmarthenshire County Council).

If I didn’t vote for the Green Party, I would vote for Plaid Cymru.

For several months now I have argued that the over-riding priority in this election is to stop Reform from getting anywhere near control of the Senedd. That must come before any other consideration.

Given the dreadful “closed list” Dhont system that we now have it is very difficult to see how people can conduct any tactical voting with reasonable confidence. If Labour were the main opposition to Reform in this Constituency, I would probably vote for them despite many, many good reasons not to.

Whether I vote for Plaid Cymru or the Green Party it is not going to make any difference to how many seats Reform get.

I don’t see this as an easy decision. Plaid Cymru are owed an enormous debt of gratitude for their magnificent victory in the Caerphilly by-election and for “holding the line” in a series of Council by-elections.

From where I sit in Caerfyddin Plaid Cymru have chosen their candidates in a quite exemplary democratic manner. They were out campaigning months before Labour. Many of their policies are more truly “Labour” than Labour’s.

However, it is unlikely that Plaid Cymru will achieve an overall majority in the Senedd and they will need to look elsewhere for some kind of agreement with another Party or Parties.

With much sadness I have to say that it will be much better if that is not Labour (unless some profound changes take place to that Party in England, in Wales and in the relationship between the two).

There is a history in the Caerfyddin constituency which really must be a significant factor. As leader of the Council Labour Group Rob James moved a motion that was carried overwhelming calling for the Dyfed Pension Committee to divest from Fossil fuels. That was several years ago. Not much happened. Last year, having become an Independent Councillor, he moved a Motion calling for the same Pension Committee to divest from companies complicit in the Israeli genocide in Gaza.

This was agreed overwhelmingly. So far there is no sign of the Pension Committee complying. The thing is that the majority of the Pension Committee are Plaid Cymru Councillors. Furthermore, the Wales Pension Partnership, which increasingly deals with all the assets of the different Pension Committees is led by the same folk from Carmarthenshire who have systematically resisted all attempts to adopt a more ethical approach. For myself that alone tells me to try to have Rob James as one of our Senedd members rather than a fourth Plaid Cymru candidate.

Rob is a good campaigner, policy thinker, and has a lot of experience in dealing with the dead hand of officialdom, bureaucracy and dubious advice that has increasingly grown into one of the greatest obstacles to new and radical ideas.

As it happens, a governing majority consisting of 75% Plaid Cymru and 25% Green Party looks to me like a good formula, and it happens to fit the particular outcome that I would like to see in my own Constituency.

However, there are 15 other constituencies that each need a similar approach to work out what is best in their unique circumstances. Is there anyone out there who can help?